Müller-Casseres, Eduardo;
Leblanc, Florian;
van den Berg, Maarten;
Fragkos, Panagiotis;
Dessens, Olivier;
Naghash, Hesam;
Draeger, Rebecca;
... Schaeffer, Roberto; + view all
(2024)
International shipping in a world below 2 °C.
Nature Climate Change
, 14
pp. 600-607.
10.1038/s41558-024-01997-1.
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Abstract
The decarbonization of shipping has become an important policy goal. While integrated assessment models (IAMs) are often used to explore climate mitigation strategies, they typically provide little information on international shipping, which accounts for emissions of around 0.7 GtCO2 yr−1. Here we perform a multi-IAM analysis of international shipping and show the potential for decreasing annual emissions in the next decades, with reductions of up to 86% by 2050. This is primarily achieved through the deployment of low-carbon fuels. Models that represent several potential low-carbon alternatives tend to show a deeper decarbonization of international shipping, with drop-in biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia standing out as the main substitutes for conventional maritime fuels. While our results align with the 2018 emission reduction goal of the International Maritime Organization, their compatibility with the agency’s revised target is still subject to a more definitive interpretation.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | International shipping in a world below 2 °C |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41558-024-01997-1 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-01997-1 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author-accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Climate-change mitigation, Energy modelling, Energy supply and demand |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10193262 |
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