McEwan, Phil;
Gabb, Peter D;
Davis, Jason A;
Sanchez, Juan Jose Garcia;
Sjöström, C David;
Barone, Salvatore;
Kashioulis, Pavlos;
... Heerspink, Hiddo JL; + view all
(2024)
The long-term effects of dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease: a time-to-event analysis.
Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation
, Article gfae106. 10.1093/ndt/gfae106.
(In press).
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Abstract
BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) presents a significant clinical and economic burden to healthcare systems worldwide, which increases considerably with progression towards kidney failure. The DAPA-CKD trial demonstrated that patients with or without type 2 diabetes (T2D) who were treated with dapagliflozin experienced slower progression of CKD versus placebo. Understanding the effect of long-term treatment with dapagliflozin on the timing of kidney failure beyond trial follow-up can assist informed decision-making by healthcare providers and patients. The study objective was therefore to extrapolate the outcome-based clinical benefits of treatment with dapagliflozin in patients with CKD via a time-to-event analysis using trial data. METHODS: Patient-level data from the DAPA-CKD trial were used to parameterise a closed cohort-level partitioned survival model that predicted time-to-event for key trial endpoints (kidney failure, all-cause mortality, sustained decline in kidney function, and hospitalisation for heart failure). Data were pooled with a subpopulation of the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial to create a combined CKD population spanning a range of CKD stages; a parallel survival analysis was conducted in this population. RESULTS: In the DAPA-CKD and pooled CKD populations, treatment with dapagliflozin delayed time to first event for kidney failure, all-cause mortality, sustained decline in kidney function, and hospitalisation for heart failure. Attenuation of CKD progression was predicted to slow the time to kidney failure by 6.6 years (dapagliflozin: 25.2, 95%CI: 19.0-31.5; standard therapy: 18.5, 95%CI: 14.7-23.4) in the DAPA-CKD population. A similar result was observed in the pooled CKD population with an estimated delay of 6.3 years (dapagliflozin: 36.0, 95%CI: 31.9-38.3; standard therapy: 29.6, 95%CI: 25.5-34.7). CONCLUSION: Treatment with dapagliflozin over a lifetime time horizon may considerably delay the mean time to adverse clinical outcomes for patients who would go on to experience them, including those at modest risk of progression.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | The long-term effects of dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease: a time-to-event analysis |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1093/ndt/gfae106 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ndt/gfae106 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author(s) 2024. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Keywords: | SGLT2 inhibitor, chronic kidney disease, chronic renal failure, diabetic kidney disease, mortality |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine > Renal Medicine |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10193196 |
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