Ekins, Paul; (2023) The global context and pathways to net zero. In: Stopping Climate Change: Policies for Real Zero. (pp. 44-73). Routledge: London, UK.

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Abstract

In order to address the challenge of climate change, countries agreed the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992. So far, despite annual Conferences of the Parties (COPs) they have failed to stop global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increasing, though emissions in some countries are now declining. Meeting the temperature targets agreed at the Paris COP meeting in 2015 requires global ‘net-zero’ emissions – whereby remaining GHG emissions are offset by atmospheric removals of them – by 2050. Different countries have very different total, per person and cumulative levels of emissions. This makes assignment of ‘responsibility’ for climate change and what to do about it both complex and disputed. In addition, the poorest countries that have done least to cause climate change through their emissions seem likely to suffer most from it. The total amount of GHGs that can now be emitted while keeping within the Paris temperature targets – the so-called ‘carbon budgets’ – are now very small. Numerous scenarios of emission reduction have been produced in order to show what technologies will be needed, and the extent to which they will need to be implemented, to reach ‘net-zero’ emissions by 2050. Three of these scenarios are described in some detail.

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