Yi, Jiahuan;
Mahgerefteh, Haroun;
Porter, Richard;
(2024)
A probabilistic approach to optimal emergency shutdown valve configuration for pressurised pipelines.
Journal of Cleaner Production
, 466
, Article 142915. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142915.
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Abstract
A multi-objective optimisation technique for selecting the optimal number of in-line Emergency Shutdown Valves (ESDVs) for pressurised CO2 pipelines by balancing risk, treated as a probabilistic variable, against valve cost is presented. Starting with modelling the uncertainties in pipeline characteristics and operating conditions using standard Probability Density Functions (PDFs), a Monte Carlo simulation involving the random sampling from these PDFs is performed to obtain the probability distribution of the risk associated with pipeline failure. Based on the obtained probability distribution, mapping the risk in the space of the objective functions provides a probabilistic solution plane for determining the optimal number of ESDVs. The efficacy of the proposed technique is demonstrated via comparative research where the risk is treated deterministically as the worst-case scenario. The findings reveal that more probabilistically cost-effective risk mitigation solutions can be attained when the risks associated with possible failure scenarios are assessed during the risk mitigation planning process, rather than employing a pre-determined expected risk value before the planning phase, as the well-established practice. This highlights the importance of the uncertainties in pipeline characteristics and operating conditions in helping decision makers configure in-line ESDVs effectively in CO2 pipelines.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | A probabilistic approach to optimal emergency shutdown valve configuration for pressurised pipelines |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142915 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142915 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author-accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Emergency shutdown valves; Valve optimisation; Pressurised CO2 pipelines; Multi-objective optimisation; Quantitative risk assessment |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Chemical Engineering |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10189669 |
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