Hernández Ramírez, José Luis;
(2024)
A Geographic Intelligence Model of Criminal Groups: A study of cargo theft on Mexican Highways.
Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).
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Abstract
Organised criminal groups (OCGs) are responsible for a large amount of criminal activity that is experienced in countries across the world. Although many studies have examined the structure of OCGs and the influence they have, very few studies have examined their geographic activity. In particular, geographic activity that can provide intelligence that can be used to counter the criminal activities of these groups. Using the example of cargo theft on highways in Mexico, this research aims to develop a geographic intelligence model (GIM) of criminal group activity. Between 2015 to 2020, cargo theft on Mexican highways increased by 40% and on average accounted for almost $USD 4 million in losses per day. Most of these crimes were associated with OCGs. To better understand the activities of these criminal groups a hybrid analytical quantitative and qualitative model of geographic intelligence is proposed. The first part of this model involves a spatial analysis of the criminal activity to identify the extent to which this activity is spatially and temporally concentrated. In this case, the spatial and temporal concentration of cargo theft across highway segments in Mexico. The second part of the model involves using crime script analysis to examine the sequencing of the activities associated with the criminal act to identify patterns of offender decision-making, the roles that ‘actors’ (e.g., members of the criminal group, non-members and businesses) perform, and the associations between those involved in the criminal activities. The information gathered through this second process is used for presenting a crime commission process (CCP) of the criminal activity, from its planning to its execution. The information gathered in the CPP is then examined to extract geographic locations of interest that relate to the activities of the actors involved. The third part involves the creation of a geographic profile that considers the environmental characteristics of where offences take place and the geographic activities of the actors involved in the CCP to determine locations where a criminal group locates their strategic places of action. In this manner, the GIM is an intelligence product for better understanding the criminal activities of criminal groups, with specific attention to where their activities are located. With this better understanding of criminal groups, interventions to counter their activities can be better targeted and tailored.
| Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Qualification: | Ph.D |
| Title: | A Geographic Intelligence Model of Criminal Groups: A study of cargo theft on Mexican Highways |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author 2024. Original content in this thesis is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Any third-party copyright material present remains the property of its respective owner(s) and is licensed under its existing terms. Access may initially be restricted at the author’s request. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10188188 |
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