Kim, Chris (Seokyoung); (2022) How competitive are sustainable aviation fuels in a net zero energy system? Presented at: H2FC Supergen Research Conference, St Andrews, UK.

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Abstract

Long-distance air travel requires fuel with a high specific energy and a high energy density. There are no viable alternatives to hydrocarbon jet fuels. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are a promising low-carbon alternative, using a range of feedstocks including biomass, waste, hydrogen and captured carbon dioxide (CO2). Industrial SAF facilities are inherently paired with CO2 streams in their process flows, providing opportunities for carbon capture and storage (CCS) or utilisation (CCU) and a potential value in the energy system for emissions reduction. Here, the competitiveness of hydrogen and bio-based synthetic jet fuels are examined under a net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 scenario, using a cost-optimisation framework. The modelling method is applied to the UK as a case study, through an energy system model, UK TIMES. A robust SAF portfolio is represented in the model, including all Fischer-Tropsch based technologies. In 2050, we find that it is cheaper to use conventional jet fuel coupled with a negative emissions technology than to produce SAF in the UK. However, when underground CO2 storage is assumed limited below 80 Mt in 2050, the market share for hydrogen based SAF become substantial. When CCS is not constrained, it is more economical to use CO2 for CCS than CCU to achieve a net zero energy system. When there is a market for CCU in some scenarios, producing hydrogen based SAF is the preferred option among others. SAF facilities that use biogenic feedstocks must come with the CCS optionality or they have no value in any scenario due to high investment costs and relatively low carbon capture rates. Biomass allocation in the energy system indicate that biomass is best used for technologies that can capture the most carbon. These scenarios demonstrate a strong link between the assumptions around SAF, CCS and negative emissions. Policymakers should consider this relationship and important characteristics of low-carbon industrial SAF facilities to drive investment decisions in the scope of realising net zero.

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