Hajat, Shakoor;
Gampe, David;
Petrou, Giorgos;
(2024)
Contribution of Cold Versus Climate Change to Mortality in London, UK, 1976–2019.
American Journal of Public Health
e1-e5.
10.2105/ajph.2023.307552.
(In press).
![[thumbnail of Hajat_2024_accepted.pdf]](https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/style/images/fileicons/text.png) |
Text
Hajat_2024_accepted.pdf - Accepted Version Access restricted to UCL open access staff Download (189kB) |
Abstract
Objectives: To quantify past reductions in cold-related mortality attributable to anthropogenic climate change. // Methods: We performed a daily time-series regression analysis employing distributed lag nonlinear models of 1 203 981 deaths in Greater London, United Kingdom, in winter months (November–March) during 1976 to 2019. We made attribution assessment by comparing differential cold-related mortality impacts associated with observed temperatures to those using counterfactual temperatures representing no climate change. // Results: Over the past decade, the average number of cold days (below 8 °C) per year was 120 in the observed series and 158 in the counterfactual series. Since 1976, we estimate 447 (95% confidence interval = 330, 559) annual cold-related all-cause deaths have been avoided because of milder temperatures associated with climate change. Annually, 241 cardiovascular and 73 respiratory disease deaths have been avoided. // Conclusions: Anthropogenic climate change made some contribution to reducing previous cold-related deaths in London; however, cold remains an important public health risk factor. // Public Health Implications: Better adaptation to both heat and cold should be promoted in public health measures to protect against climate change. In England, this has been addressed by the development of a new year-round Adverse Weather and Health Plan. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print February 15, 2024:e1–e5. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307552).
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Contribution of Cold Versus Climate Change to Mortality in London, UK, 1976–2019 |
| DOI: | 10.2105/ajph.2023.307552 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2023.307552 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10187354 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
