Sleiman, Yara; (2023) Rallying ‘round a failed state: Institutional trust in post-blast Beirut. Masters thesis (M.Phil), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Do crises caused by government negligence trigger a rally-round-the-flag effect? On August 4, 2020, one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in history occurred in Beirut, Lebanon, resulting in hundreds of deaths, thousands of injuries, and extensive damage to infrastructure in the city. The explosion was caused by the detonation of 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate that had been stored unsafely in a port warehouse for several years. In this study, I ask whether exposure to the blast caused a shift in institutional trust. I leverage regional variations in blast exposure and pooled cross-sectional data from surveys conducted before and after the blast. Using a difference-indifferences design, I show that residents exposed to the blast exhibited an average increase in institutional trust of 9-25 percentage points compared to residents of unaffected areas. Trust in courts demonstrates a sustained and strengthening effect, while trust in the government, the army, and religious leaders diminishes over time. The results hold irrespective of respondents’ political affiliations and are robust to alternative specifications. An analysis of potential mechanisms shows that relief efforts likely facilitate the boost in trust, and alternative channels such as patriotism and opinion leadership are ruled out

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