Mesta, Carlos;
Ceferino, Luis;
Cremen, Gemma;
Galasso, Carmine;
(2023)
Understanding post-earthquake hospital arrival times through agent-based modelling.
In:
Proceedings of Conference Earthquake risk and engineering towards a resilient world (SECED 2023).
Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics (SECED): Cambridge, UK.
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Abstract
Infrastructural and socio-economic factors controlling the post-earthquake transfer of injured people to hospitals are critical for decision-making on post-disaster medical assistance but remain largely unexplored in the literature. This work addresses this challenge through an agent-based modelling approach that comprises two computational steps (modules). The first module consists of a probabilistic multi-severity casualty estimation model for quantifying the number, severity, and distribution of casualties following an earthquake in a region. The second module incorporates an agent-based model simulating individual and collective community behaviour related to transporting injured people to hospitals during the post-disaster phase. The model assumes that injured people arrive at hospitals by their own means (in a vehicle) or by ambulance, depending on the severity of their injury. The proposed approach is demonstrated for a moment magnitude (Mw) 8.0 earthquake scenario earthquake in Lima, Peru, focusing on two districts (i.e., Santiago de Surco, San Juan de Miraflores). The main results of this study indicate that some characteristics of the built environment (i.e., the number of hospitals and ambulances in the area) and attributes of the population (i.e., car ownership) may be essential for guaranteeing access to adequate post-disaster medical care. The findings of this work can be used to help decision-makers in planning effective emergency response strategies for future earthquake disasters.
| Type: | Proceedings paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | Understanding post-earthquake hospital arrival times through agent-based modelling |
| Event: | Conference Earthquake risk and engineering towards a resilient world (SECED 2023) |
| Location: | Cambridge, United Kingdom |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | https://www.seced.org.uk/index.php/seced-2023-proc... |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the version of record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10183183 |
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