Cremen, Gemma; Werner, Maximilian J; Baptie, Brian; (2021) Understanding the implications of seismicity induced by UK shale gas development. In: Proceedings of the 17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 17 WCEE. (pp. pp. 1-12). IAEE: Sendai, Japan.

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Abstract

Shale gas development can be a source of concern for local populations and stakeholders, as the associated process of hydraulic fracturing may be accompanied by microseismicity and – in some locations – small to moderate seismic events with ground motions that have the potential to be felt (i.e., cause a nuisance) nearby. The purpose of this study is to help quantify this nuisance potential. We specifically focus on the UK, where shale gas development is a relatively new industrial activity; the first well to specifically test for shale gas in the country was drilled in 2010 and the first recorded instance of seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing in the UK occurred in 2011. We propose a novel framework for quantifying the hydraulic-fracture-related nuisance risk, and apply it to the Preston New Road (PNR) shale gas site in Lancashire, North West England, where hydraulic fracture operations in 2018 and 2019 resulted in events with local magnitude range (ML) -1.7 to 2.9, including eight that were felt by local populations. The framework is a modified version of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) that combines statistical forecast models for injection-induced seismicity, ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), and an exposure model of the affected area, to quantitatively link the volume of fluid injected with the potential for nuisance felt ground motions. For the greater PNR region, we find that ground motions equivalent in amplitude to that at which pile driving becomes perceptible may be exceeded in the location of at least one building for event magnitudes equal to or exceeding the current UK induced seismicity traffic light system “red light” event (i.e ML = 0.5), or injection volumes ≥ 1000 m3 . We also find that cosmetic damage may occur in at least one building for Mw ≥ 2.1 or injection volumes ≥ 40,000 m3 . The proposed nuisance risk quantification framework is proactive in nature, as it facilitates control of the injection volume ahead of time for risk mitigation. This type of framework has significant advantages over reactive-type magnitude and ground motion-based systems typically used for induced seismicity management. We also discuss how the proposed framework can be used to inform policy related to hydraulic-fracture induced seismicity. This research is intended to help stakeholders make better-informed decisions about the regulation of shale gas development in the UK and other countries.

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