Mesta, C; Kerschbaum, D; Cremen, G; Galasso, C; (2022) Quantifying the Potential Benefits of Some Risk-mitigation Strategies on Future Seismic Losses in Kathmandu Valley. In: Proceedings of the 12th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 12NCEE. (pp. pp. 1-5). EERI (Earthquake Engineering Research Institute): Salt Lake City, Utah, USA.

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Abstract

Risk-mitigation measures have been shown to significantly reduce structural damage and casualties in various regions worldwide. However, these benefits remain unknown or improperly quantified for potential future events in some hazard-prone areas such as Nepal, which this paper addresses. The work specifically investigates the effect of hard mitigation measures (that influence physical vulnerability) on future financial and human losses in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The analysis involves a replicate of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8) scenario, which is combined with three different exposure inventories representing different development trajectories that Kathmandu Valley could experience in the next 10 years. The results show that under a “no change” pathway for 2031 (Scenario B), where the quality of the building stock remains the same as in 2021 (Scenario A), financial losses and fatalities will increase by 19% and 24%, respectively. In contrast, a gradual improvement of the building stock’s quality for 2031 (Scenario C) will decrease financial losses and fatalities by 12% and 50%, respectively. Moreover, the largest fatality rates in all scenarios are associated with the low-income population. The main findings of this paper can be used to inform decision-makers about the benefits of investing in forward-looking seismic risk-mitigation efforts.

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