Iacoletti, Salvatore; Cremen, Gemma; Galasso, Carmine; (2022) Validating the medium-term performance of an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model for application to seismic hazard assessments. In: Li, J and Spanos, Pol D and Chen, JB and Peng, YB, (eds.) Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability (ICOSSAR 2021). (pp. pp. 1-10). ICOSSAR: Shanghai, China.

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Abstract

Moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes induce considerable short-to-mediumterm increases in seismic hazard, due to the subsequent occurrence of aftershocks. This study validates the medium-term (i.e. months to years) performance of an advanced formulation of the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model for implementation in simulationbased Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The aim of the work is to determine whether the ETAS models calibrated with two different calibration procedures can forecast adequate numbers of aftershocks, and consistent spatial and magnitude-frequency distributions, for three years after a given large-magnitude mainshock. The validation procedure employs only out-of-sample testing and its evaluation metrics are the catalog-based scores recently proposed for the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) framework. It is demonstrated using the New Zealand catalog of the period 1990-2020, which includes seven sequences. The findings of this study can be used to guide future implementations of the considered ETAS formulation, possibly in combination with a simulation-based mainshock PSHA.

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