Iacoletti, Salvatore;
Cremen, Gemma;
Galasso, Carmine;
(2022)
Validating the medium-term performance of an Epidemic-Type Aftershock
Sequence (ETAS) model for application to seismic hazard assessments.
In: Li, J and Spanos, Pol D and Chen, JB and Peng, YB, (eds.)
Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability (ICOSSAR 2021).
(pp. pp. 1-10).
ICOSSAR: Shanghai, China.
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Abstract
Moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes induce considerable short-to-mediumterm increases in seismic hazard, due to the subsequent occurrence of aftershocks. This study validates the medium-term (i.e. months to years) performance of an advanced formulation of the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model for implementation in simulationbased Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The aim of the work is to determine whether the ETAS models calibrated with two different calibration procedures can forecast adequate numbers of aftershocks, and consistent spatial and magnitude-frequency distributions, for three years after a given large-magnitude mainshock. The validation procedure employs only out-of-sample testing and its evaluation metrics are the catalog-based scores recently proposed for the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) framework. It is demonstrated using the New Zealand catalog of the period 1990-2020, which includes seven sequences. The findings of this study can be used to guide future implementations of the considered ETAS formulation, possibly in combination with a simulation-based mainshock PSHA.
| Type: | Proceedings paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | Validating the medium-term performance of an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model for application to seismic hazard assessments |
| Event: | ICOSSAR 2021-2022,13th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability |
| Location: | Shanghai, China |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | http://www.icossar2021.org/ |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the version of record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Aftershock modeling; Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS); Model validation; Model calibration; Simulation-based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10181655 |
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