Iannacone, Leandro;
Gentile, Roberto;
Galasso, Carmine;
(2023)
Modelling multi-hazards interactions in life-cycle analysis of engineering systems.
In:
Proceedings of Conference Earthquake Engineering and Dynamics for a Sustainable Future (SECED 2023).
Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics (SECED): Cambridge, UK.
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Abstract
Complex engineering systems must be designed to sustain the occurrence of multiple natural and man-made hazards during their service life. To properly quantify multi-hazard effects on the performance of engineering systems, we need to identify the interactions in both occurrence rates of multiple hazards and associated consequences. Recent literature has established a common nomenclature for multi-hazard design, separating occurrence interactions from consequence interactions. In terms of occurrence, hazards are classified as concurrent (if they tend to occur simultaneously) and successive (if one hazard intensifies the occurrence rate of another). In terms of consequences, cascading effects are identified whenever a hazard's occurrence modifies the system's properties, changing the effects of a subsequent hazard. However, the available literature mainly looks at the problem from a qualitative perspective that classifies interactions but does not translate the resulting taxonomy to the mathematical modelling of the hazards and their effects. This paper aims to fill this gap by identifying modelling approaches associated with different hazard interdependencies. In particular, we focus on occurrence interactions, and we develop a simulation-based approach for generating multihazard scenarios (i.e., a sequence of hazard events and associated features through the system’s life cycle) based on the theory of competing Poisson processes. The proposed approach incorporates the different types of interactions in a sequential Monte Carlo sampling method. The method outputs potential sequences of events throughout a system’s life cycle, which can be integrated into LCA frameworks to quantify interacting hazard consequences. A simple application is presented to illustrate the potential of the proposed method.
| Type: | Proceedings paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | Modelling multi-hazards interactions in life-cycle analysis of engineering systems |
| Event: | Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics (SECED) 2023 conference: Earthquake Engineering and Dynamics for a Sustainable Future |
| Location: | Cambridge, United Kingdom |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | https://www.seced.org.uk/index.php/seced-2023-proc... |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author-accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. // © The Author(s), 2023. This article is shared under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial International Licence 4.0 (CC BY-NC 4.0). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10181130 |
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