Otárola, K;
Iannacone, L;
Gentile, R;
Galasso, C;
(2023)
A Markovian framework to model life-cycle consequences of infrastructure systems in a multi-hazard environment.
In: Biondini, Fabio and Frangopol, Dan M., (eds.)
Life-Cycle of Structures and Infrastructure Systems.
(pp. pp. 325-332).
CRC Press
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Abstract
Existing frameworks for multi-hazard life-cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis typically disregard the interactions between multiple hazards and obtain the total LCCon as the sum of the consequences caused by the individual hazards modelled independently. This practice leads to inaccurate life-cycle consequence estimates and ineffective risk-informed decision-making for disaster-mitigation strategies and/or resilience-enhancing policies. In addition, most available LCCon formulations fail to accurately incorporate the damage-accumulation effects due to incomplete (or absent) repairs between different hazard events. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a Markovian framework for efficient multi-hazard LCCon analysis of deteriorating structural systems, appropriately accounting for complex interactions between hazards and their effects on a system’s performance. The changes in the system’s performance level (e.g., damage or functionality state) are quantified with transition probability matrices following the Markovian assumption and the expected LCCon estimates are obtained by combining the performance level distribution with suitable system-level consequence models, which can include direct asset losses as well as socio-economic consequences. To showcase the framework applicability, a simple road network with a single case-study ordinary reinforced concrete bridge subject to earthquake-induced ground motions and environmentally-induced corrosion deterioration is investigated, estimating consequences in terms of community welfare loss.
| Type: | Proceedings paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | A Markovian framework to model life-cycle consequences of infrastructure systems in a multi-hazard environment |
| Event: | 8th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering (IALCCE 2023) |
| Location: | Milano, Italy |
| ISBN-13: | 9781003323020 |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1201/9781003323020 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003323020 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © The Authors 2023. Original content in this paper is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10180504 |
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