Iannacone, L; Manandhar, V; Gyawali, J; Malla, P; Gentile, R; Creed, M; Guragain, R; Iannacone, L; Manandhar, V; Gyawali, J; Malla, P; Gentile, R; Creed, M; Guragain, R; Galasso, C; - view fewer (2023) Simulation-based flood fragility and vulnerability analysis for expanding cities. In: Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP14). (pp. pp. 1-8). ICASP14

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Abstract

Accurately quantifying flood-induced impacts on buildings and other infrastructure systems is essential for risk-sensitive planning and decision-making in expanding urban regions. Flood-induced impacts are directly related to the physical components of assets damaged due to contact with water. Such components include building contents (e.g., appliances, furniture) and other non-structural components whose damage/unavailability can severely impact the buildingsﾒ functionality. Conventional fragility analysis approaches for flooding do not account for the physical damage to the individual components, mostly relying on empirical methods based on historical data. However, recent studies proposed simulation-based, assembly-based fragility models that account for the damage to the building components. Such fragility models require developing detailed inventories of vulnerable components of households and identifying building archetypes to be considered in a building portfolio for the region of interest. Content inventories and building portfolios have so far been obtained for specific socio-economic contexts such as the United States of America. However, building types and their content can significantly differ between countries, making the available fragility models and computational frameworks unsuitable for flood vulnerability analysis in rapidly expanding cities characterised by extensive informal settlements, such as low- and middle-income countries. This paper details how to adapt the available methodologies for flood vulnerability assessment to the context of formal and informal settlements of expanding cities in the global south. It also details the development of content inventories for households in these cities using field surveys. The proposed survey is deployed in various areas vulnerable to floods in Kathmandu, Nepal. Based on the survey results, each component within the household is associated with a corresponding flood capacity (resistance) distribution (in terms of water height and flood duration). These distributions are then employed in a simulation-based probabilistic framework to obtain fragility relationship and consequence models. The relevant differences between the results obtained in this study and those from previous studies are then investigated for a case-study building type. In addition, the influence of socio-economic factors (e.g., household income) and past flood experience (possibly resulting in various flood-risk mitigation strategies at a household level) on the resulting flood impacts is also included in the model.

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