Otárola, K;
Iannacone, L;
Gentile, R;
Galasso, C;
(2023)
A Markovian framework for multi-hazard life-cycle consequence analysis of deteriorating structural systems.
In:
Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering(ICASP14).
(pp. pp. 1-9).
ICASP14
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Abstract
Multiple-hazard (or simply multi-hazard) interactions are either disregarded or addressed inadequately in most existing computational risk modelling frameworks for natural hazards, leading to inaccurate life-cycle consequence estimates. This, in turn, can lead to ineffective risk-informed decisionmaking for disaster-mitigation strategies and/or resilience-enhancing policies. Probabilistic multi-hazard life-cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis (e.g., assessment of repair costs, downtime, and casualties over an asset’s service life) enables optimal life-cycle management of critical assets under uncertainties. However, despite recent advances, most available LCCon formulations fail to accurately incorporate the damage-accumulation effects due to incomplete (or absent) repairs in between different hazard events. This paper introduces a Markovian framework for efficient multi-hazard LCCon analysis of deteriorating structural systems, appropriately accounting for complex interactions between hazards and their effects on a system’s performance. The proposed framework can be used to test various risk management and adaptation pathways. Specifically, the Markovian assumption is used to model the probability of a system being in any performance level (e.g., damage or functionality state) after multiple hazards inducing either “shock deterioration” or “gradual deterioration”, as well as after potential repair actions given such deteriorating processes. The expected LCCon estimates are then obtained by combining the performance level distribution with suitable system-level consequence models. The proposed framework is illustrated for a case-study reinforced concrete building considering earthquake-induced ground motions and environmentally-induced corrosion deterioration during its service life.
| Type: | Proceedings paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | A Markovian framework for multi-hazard life-cycle consequence analysis of deteriorating structural systems |
| Event: | 14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP14) |
| Location: | Dublin, Ireland |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | http://hdl.handle.net/2262/103599 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © The Authors 2023. Original content in this paper is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC SA 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/deed.en). |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10180497 |
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