Sikk, A; Golder, S; Ibenskas, R; Salek, P; (2023) Does switching pay off? The impact of parliamentary party instability on individual electoral performance. In: Proceedings of the 2023 APSA Annual Meeting & Exhibition. American Political Science Association (APSA): Los Angeles, CA, USA.

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Abstract

Members of parliament who change their parliamentary party group (PPG) affiliation can be motivated by a variety of factors but the desire to improve their electoral prospects is often argued to be the among the most important. But does switching PPG affiliation improve or damage the electoral performance of those involved? We study the changes in electoral performance of Polish MPs involved in parliamentary party instability since the mid-1990s using an original dataset on all instances of switching compiled by the INSTAPARTY (Party Instability in Parliaments, https://instapartyproject.com) project. In addition to analyzing whether the MPs run for the parliament again in the following election, we zoom in on their electoral performance in terms of personal preference votes. We consider the electoral dividends of different types of switching and find that the effect of switching on personal electoral performance depends on the type of switching MPs were involved in.

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