Harrison, Rebecca E;
Hamada, Ahmed;
Haswell, Nujcharee;
Groves, Aigul;
Vihta, Karina Doris;
Cella, Kerry;
Garner, Sarah;
... Seale, Anna C; + view all
(2023)
Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020–2022.
Emerging Infectious Diseases
, 29
(10)
pp. 2024-2031.
10.3201/eid2910.230030.
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Abstract
Early detection of increased infections or new variants of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for public health response. To determine whether cycle threshold (Ct) data from PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 could serve as an early indicator of epidemic growth, we analyzed daily mean Ct values in England, UK, by gene target and used iterative sequential regression to detect break points in mean Ct values (and positive test counts). To monitor the epidemic in England, we continued those analyses in real time. During September 2020–January 2022, a total of 7,611,153 positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results with Ct data were reported. Spike (S) gene target (S+/S−)–specific mean Ct values decreased 6–29 days before positive test counts increased, and S-gene Ct values provided early indication of increasing new variants (Delta and Omicron). Our approach was beneficial in the context of the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and can be used to support future infectious disease monitoring.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020–2022 |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.3201/eid2910.230030 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2910.230030 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Emerging Infectious Diseases is an open access journal in the public domain. All content is freely available without charge to users or their institutions. In accordance with the Budapest Open Access Initiative definition of Open Access, users are allowed to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles, or use them for any other lawful purpose, without asking prior permission from the publisher or the author. Because the journal is in the public domain, its usage policy also conforms to conditions set for by Creative Commons. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology > MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10175573 |
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