Anders, Jacob; Dickerson, Andy; Gregg, Paul; Macmillan, Lindsey; (2020) Unemployment: The Coming Storm, Who Gets Hit, Who Gets Hurt, and Policy Remedies. (CEPEO Working Paper Series 20-12). Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities, UCL: London, UK.

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Abstract

While recent forecasts have pointed to an employment shock of a similar magnitude to that seen in the previous Great Recession, many of the circumstances this time round suggest we may be facing a more severe experience. This is likely to disproportionately affect young people, those from deprived families both in adulthood and in childhood, ethnic minorities, and those with low levels of education. Evidence shows that there are long-term costs to spells out of work, including reduced employment opportunities and wages, alongside lower job satisfaction, health and happiness. A combined response of macro-level interventions, alongside individually-targeted education, skills and active labour market policy responses are required. Targeted cuts to National Insurance, changing the incentives of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), increasing access courses to higher education, funding further education routes, and combined interventions including targeted job support schemes and high quality work placements are all policies that can aid recovery and minimise the costs of scarring.

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