Schenoni, Luis L; Madrid, Raul; (2023) Taming Rebellion in South America, 1830-1929. International Security (In press).

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Abstract

South America was plagued by internal conflict during the 19th century that destabilized the region’s economies and political systems. At the beginning of the 20th century, however, levels of political violence throughout the region declined dramatically. Existing scholarship has paid surprisingly little attention to this historic transformation in part because of the absence of comprehensive data on revolts. Drawing on the work of historians, we create a comprehensive dataset on revolts in ten South American countries from 1830 to 1929, and we develop an original typology of revolts based on the origins of the rebel leaders. We find that revolts from outside the state apparatus declined dramatically during this period, while revolts from inside the state, such as coups, did not. We hypothesize that increases in the size and professionalization of the military, which were driven by the export boom and the threat of international conflict, are fundamental to explain these regional patterns. We test the observational implications of our theory through historical narratives and a series of regression analyses on cross-national time-series data.

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