McDowall, W;
Reinauer, T;
Fragkos, P;
Miedzinski, M;
Cronin, J;
(2023)
Mapping regional vulnerability in Europe’s energy transition: development and application of an indicator to assess declining employment in four carbon-intensive industries.
Climatic Change
, 176
, Article 7. 10.1007/s10584-022-03478-w.
Preview |
Text
McDowall et al 2023 - vulnerable regions.pdf - Published Version Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
Europe’s transition to an energy system compatible with limiting global heating to 1.5 °C will require radical changes in energy systems. While this will create substantial new growth industries in clean technologies, some currently important economic activities will decline. The impacts of that transition will not be the same for all regions. We map the economic vulnerability of European regions to ambitious decarbonisation scenarios in terms of employment losses in four carbon-intensive industries. To do so, we develop a composite vulnerability indicator that combines each region’s share of employment in those high-carbon industries with other dimensions of vulnerability and resilience. We then explore how regional patterns of vulnerability are influenced by the technology pathway to 2050, using four scenarios modelled using the European PRIMES model. We show that economic vulnerability to the low-carbon transition is regionally concentrated, with some regions combining high employment shares in industries expected to decline with weak adaptive capacity and high pre-existing unemployment. We also show that there is little variation in regional vulnerability arising from different transition pathways. All scenarios compatible with 1.5 °C involve large declines in all high-carbon sectors we analyse, and as a result, scenario variation does not lead to large variation in relative vulnerability of regions. The results highlight regions that may be in need of additional policy support to diversify their economies and achieve a just transition.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Mapping regional vulnerability in Europe’s energy transition: development and application of an indicator to assess declining employment in four carbon-intensive industries |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-022-03478-w |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03478-w |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10164871 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
