Alexander, Nonie; (2023) Unsupervised learning methods for identifying and evaluating disease clusters in electronic health records. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Introduction Clustering algorithms are a class of algorithms that can discover groups of observations in complex data and are often used to identify subtypes of heterogeneous diseases in electronic health records (EHR). Evaluating clustering experiments for biological and clinical significance is a vital but challenging task due to the lack of consensus on best practices. As a result, the translation of findings from clustering experiments to clinical practice is limited. Aim The aim of this thesis was to investigate and evaluate approaches that enable the evaluation of clustering experiments using EHR. Methods We conducted a scoping review of clustering studies in EHR to identify common evaluation approaches. We systematically investigated the performance of the identified approaches using a cohort of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) patients as an exemplar comparing four different clustering methods (K-means, Kernel K-means, Affinity Propagation and Latent Class Analysis.). Using the same population, we developed and evaluated a method (MCHAMMER) that tested whether clusterable structures exist in EHR. To develop this method we tested several cluster validation indexes and methods of generating null data to see which are the best at discovering clusters. In order to enable the robust benchmarking of evaluation approaches, we created a tool that generated synthetic EHR data that contain known cluster labels across a range of clustering scenarios. Results Across 67 EHR clustering studies, the most popular internal evaluation metric was comparing cluster results across multiple algorithms (30% of studies). We examined this approach conducting a clustering experiment on AD patients using a population of 10,065 AD patients and 21 demographic, symptom and comorbidity features. K-means found 5 clusters, Kernel K means found 2 clusters, Affinity propagation found 5 and latent class analysis found 6. K-means 4 was found to have the best clustering solution with the highest silhouette score (0.19) and was more predictive of outcomes. The five clusters found were: typical AD (n=2026), non-typical AD (n=1640), cardiovascular disease cluster (n=686), a cancer cluster (n=1710) and a cluster of mental health issues, smoking and early disease onset (n=1528), which has been found in previous research as well as in the results of other clustering methods. We created a synthetic data generation tool which allows for the generation of realistic EHR clusters that can vary in separation and number of noise variables to alter the difficulty of the clustering problem. We found that decreasing cluster separation did increase cluster difficulty significantly whereas noise variables increased cluster difficulty but not significantly. To develop the tool to assess clusters existence we tested different methods of null dataset generation and cluster validation indices, the best performing null dataset method was the min max method and the best performing indices we Calinksi Harabasz index which had an accuracy of 94%, Davies Bouldin index (97%) silhouette score ( 93%) and BWC index (90%). We further found that when clusters were identified using the Calinski Harabasz index they were more likely to have significantly different outcomes between clusters. Lastly we repeated the initial clustering experiment, comparing 10 different pre-processing methods. The three best performing methods were RBF kernel (2 clusters), MCA (4 clusters) and MCA and PCA (6 clusters). The MCA approach gave the best results highest silhouette score (0.23) and meaningful clusters, producing 4 clusters; heart and circulatory( n=1379), early onset mental health (n=1761), male cluster with memory loss (n = 1823), female with more problem (n=2244). Conclusion We have developed and tested a series of methods and tools to enable the evaluation of EHR clustering experiments. We developed and proposed a novel cluster evaluation metric and provided a tool for benchmarking evaluation approaches in synthetic but realistic EHR.

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