Freeman, Rachel;
Pye, Steve;
(2022)
Socio-technical modelling of UK energy transition under three global SSPs, with implications for IAM scenarios.
Environmental Research Letters
, 17
(12)
, Article 124022. 10.1088/1748-9326/aca54f.
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Abstract
The potential for using findings from socio-technical energy transition (STET) models in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) has been proposed by several authors. A STET simulation model called TEMPEST, which includes the influence of societal and political factors in the UK’s energy transition, is used to model three of the global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) at the national level. The SSP narratives are interpreted as inputs to TEMPEST, which drive scenario simulations to reflect varying societal preferences for mitigation measures, the level of political support for energy transition, and future economic and population trends. SSP1 and SSP2 come close to meeting net zero targets in 2050 but SSP5 does not reach net zero by 2080. An estimate of the total societal, political, and economic cost of scenarios indicates that while SSP1 achieves the best emissions reductions it also has the highest total cost, and SSP2 achieves the best ratio between rate of emissions reductions and total cost. Feasibility appears to be highest for SSP2 since it is the least different to historical precedent. Current UK government energy strategy is closer to the narrative in SSP5, however, which has the highest total cost and exceeds an estimated carbon budget by 32%. Recommendations for using TEMPEST findings in IAMs include: (i) the uncertainty in emissions savings from variable political and societal support for energy transition, (ii) the influence of societal pushback to policies in achievement of expected policy outcomes, and (iii) introducing additional drivers for future patterns of energy services demand.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Socio-technical modelling of UK energy transition under three global SSPs, with implications for IAM scenarios |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1088/1748-9326/aca54f |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca54f |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10160976 |
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