Norman, Paul; Murray, Emily T; (2019) Life course neighbourhood deprivation effects on body mass index: quantifying the importance of selective migration. Presented at: GEOMED 2019, Glasgow, UK.

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Abstract

Neighbourhood effects research is plagued by the inability to disentangle effects of neighbourhoods from selection sorting of people into neighbourhoods over time. We used data from two British Birth Cohorts, the 1958 (ages 16, 23, 33, 42 and 55) and the 1970 (ages 16, 24, 34 and 42), and structural equation modelling, to investigate life course relationships between body mass index [BMI] and area deprivation (addresses at each linked to the closest census 1971-2011 Townsend score [TOWN] re-calculated to reflect 2011 lower super output level (LSOA) boundaries). Initially, model fit was compared between three models: (1) area deprivation only, (2) health selection only and (3) both combined. Following, in the best fitting model relationships were tested for effect modification by residential mobility by inclusion of interaction terms. Findings showed that model fit statistics were contradictory, so the most complex model – with both area deprivation and health effects included – was chosen for further analysis. For both cohorts, both BMI and area deprivation tracked across the life course. In both cohorts, relationships occurred between area deprivation and BMI at the next interval at all age intervals except in NCDS, TOWN23->BMI33. In contrast, health selection paths only occurred at three intervals (NCDS: BMI23->TOWN33 and BMI33->TOWN42; BCS: BMI34->TOWN42). Moving between study intervals was related to BMI and TOWN at some ages, but did not modify any area deprivation effect or BMI health selection paths. In conclusion, while selective sorting by BMI does occur in later adulthood, it does not explain adolescent and adulthood associations between area deprivation and BMI.

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