Haider, Najmul;
Chang, Yu-Mei;
Rahman, Mahbubur;
Zumla, Alimuddin;
Kock, Richard A;
(2021)
Dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh: Historic epidemic patterns suggest earlier mosquito control intervention in the transmission season could reduce the monthly growth factor and extent of epidemics.
Current Research in Parasitology & Vector-Borne Diseases
, 1
, Article 100063. 10.1016/j.crpvbd.2021.100063.
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Abstract
Dengue is endemic in Bangladesh and is an important cause of morbidity and mortality. Suppressing the mosquito vector activity at the optimal time annually is a practical strategy to control dengue outbreaks. The objective of this study was to estimate the monthly growth factor (GF) of dengue cases over the past 12 years as a means to identify the optimal time for a vector-control programme in Bangladesh. We reviewed the monthly cases reported by the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research of Bangladesh during the period of January 2008-December 2019. We calculated the GF of dengue cases between successive months during this period and report means and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The median number of patients admitted to the hospital with dengue fever per year was 1554 (range: 375-101,354). The mean monthly GF of dengue cases was 1.2 (95% CI: 0.4-2.4). The monthly GF lower CI between April and July was > 1, whereas from September to November and January the upper CI was <1. The highest GF of dengue was recorded in June (mean: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.7-3.5) and lowest in October (mean: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.24-0.73). More than 81% (39/48) months between April and July for the period 2008-2019 had monthly GF > 1 compared to 20% (19/96) months between August and March of the same period. The monthly GF was significantly correlated with monthly rainfall (r = 0.39) and monthly mean temperature (r = 0.30). The growth factor of the dengue cases over the last 12 years appeared to follow a marked periodicity linked to regional rainfall patterns. The increased transmission rate during the months of April-July, a seasonally determined peak suggests the need for strengthening a range of public health interventions, including targeted vector control efforts and community education campaigns.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh: Historic epidemic patterns suggest earlier mosquito control intervention in the transmission season could reduce the monthly growth factor and extent of epidemics |
| Location: | Netherlands |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.crpvbd.2021.100063 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crpvbd.2021.100063 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by- nc-nd/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh, Dengue, Growth factor, Outbreaks, Rainfall, Vector-control |
| UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Infection and Immunity UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10151288 |
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