Kabiri, A;
James, H;
Landon-Lane, J;
Tuckett, D;
Nyman, R;
(2022)
The role of sentiment in the US economy: 1920 to 1934.
Economic History Review
10.1111/ehr.13160.
(In press).
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Abstract
This paper investigates the role of sentiment in the US economy from 1920 to 1934 using digitised articles from The Wall Street Journal. We derive a monthly sentiment index and use a 10-variable vector error correction model to identify sentiment shocks that are orthogonal to fundamentals. We show the timing and strength of these shocks and their resultant effects on the economy using historical decompositions. Intermittent impacts of up to 15 per cent on industrial production, 10 per cent on the S&P 500 and bank loans, and 37 basis points for the credit risk spread suggest a large role for sentiment.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | The role of sentiment in the US economy: 1920 to 1934 |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1111/ehr.13160 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13160 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2022 The Authors. The Economic History Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Economic History Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Keywords: | Algorithmic text analysis, business sentiment, Great Depression, US interwar economy |
| UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Clinical, Edu and Hlth Psychology UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10149670 |
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