Blanchflower, David G;
Bryson, Alex;
(2023)
The Economics of Walking About and Predicting Unemployment in the United States.
National Institute Economic Review
(In press).
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Abstract
We show consumer expectations indices from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict unemployment upticks in the United States up to 18 months in advance, both at national and at state-level. These data predict six of the last six recessions called by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee six to eighteen months before the date of recession. The consumer expectations data for 2021 and 2022 are consistent with recession.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | The Economics of Walking About and Predicting Unemployment in the United States |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/national-i... |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, recession, consumer expectations |
| UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education > IOE - Social Research Institute UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education UCL |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10149452 |
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