Ekins, Paul;
Drummond, Paul;
Scamman, Daniel;
Paroussos, Leonidas;
Keppo, Ilkka;
(2022)
1.5°C Climate and Energy Scenarios: Impacts on Economic Growth.
Oxford Open Energy
10.1093/ooenergy/oiac005.
(In press).
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Abstract
In the context of calls for ‘de-growth’ (reduction in GDP) in developed countries for them to be able to reduce emissions to ‘net zero’ in time for the temperature target in the Paris Agreement to be met, this article explores the various impacts on economic growth in the IPCC scenarios that limit the average global temperature increase in 2100 to 1.5oC. It finds that the impacts are generally small and that in no case is ‘degrowth’ required, although the requirements for the rate and nature of technological developments are challenging. The article then reports on a modelling exercise that investigates in more detail the economic dynamics of achieving the 1.5oC target. It finds that, as with the IPCC scenarios, and assuming the feasibility of at-scale deployment of carbon capture and negative emission technologies, economic growth continues throughout this century, with a major contribution coming from the investment required to decarbonise the energy system.
Type: | Article |
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Title: | 1.5°C Climate and Energy Scenarios: Impacts on Economic Growth |
Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
DOI: | 10.1093/ooenergy/oiac005 |
Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1093/ooenergy/oiac005 |
Language: | English |
Additional information: | Copyright © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL |
URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10146687 |
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