Li, Pei-Hao; (2021) Energy Modelling in the UK: The construction, maintenance and transparency of models. (Briefing paper 3 ). UK Energy Research Centre: London, UK.

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Abstract

Energy models provide the underpinning evidence to support decision makers across policy, industry and civil society to understand strategies and trade-offs in the energy transition. However modelling exists in the “real” world where funding is limited, modellers’ time is scarce, and decision makers often need insights delivered quickly. As a result, the construction of models can be an uneven development process with an incumbency advantage, and potential silos to new approaches. The subsequent maintenance of models usually suffers from lack of incentives for quality assurance, version control and documentation. Trust in energy models is essential to encourage both stakeholder participation and wider public engagement for the success of the energy transition. Model transparency is the key to gain public trust as only transparent models can be reviewed and verified. However, energy modellers – certainly in academia but perhaps even more so in Government and consulting – have often struggled to make their models open and accessible. The Modelling Hub survey and outputs To investigate these and other critical interlinked issues, UKERC’s Energy Modelling Hub coordinated a ground-breaking survey of all the energy models in use in the UK. As of 1st April 2021, there are 76 UK energy models reported into our database. This paper (#3) is the third of four from UKERC’s Modelling Hub survey, and focuses on the construction, maintenance and transparency of the models captured in the survey. In considering these issues, the brief focused on three key areas: How the models are constructed; in terms of costs, funding sources, and resulting impacts; How the models are maintained; in terms of costs, number of users, and the process of updating models; How the models are made open to stakeholders and other modellers; in terms of different transparency levels The first of the four outputs focused on the UK energy modelling landscape, detailing the diversity of who hosts and runs models. The second focused on the strengths and weaknesses of UK energy, considering time, space and the treatment of societal trends. A fourth and final output will focus on the application of UK energy models to decision making in government and industry.

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