Ali, M Sanni;
Wit, Mariken DE;
Chabata, Sungai T;
Magutshwa, Sitholubuhle;
Musemburi, Sithembile;
Dirawo, Jeffrey;
Rice, Brian;
... Hargreaves, James R; + view all
(2022)
Estimation of HIV incidence from analysis of HIV prevalence patterns by age and years since starting sex work among female sex workers in Zimbabwe.
AIDS
, 36
(8)
pp. 114-1150.
10.1097/QAD.0000000000003198.
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To estimate HIV incidence among female sex workers (FSW) in Zimbabwe: using HIV prevalence by age and number of years since started selling sex (YSSS). DESIGN: We pooled data from FSW aged 18-39 participating in respondent-driven sampling surveys conducted in Zimbabwe between 2011-2017. METHODS: For each year of age, we estimated: HIV prevalence (Pt) and the change in HIV prevalence from the previous age (Pt-Pt-1). We then estimated the rate of new HIV infections during that year of age: It = Pt-Pt-1/(1-Pt-1), and calculated HIV incidence for 18-24 and 25-39 year-olds separately as the weighted average of It. We estimated HIV incidence for FSW 1-5 years and 6-15 years since first selling sex using the same approach, and compared HIV prevalence among FSW first selling sex at their current age with the general population. RESULTS: Among 9,906 women, 50.2% were HIV positive. Based on HIV prevalence increases by age, we estimated an HIV incidence of 6.3/100 person-years at risk (pyar) (95%CI 5.3,7.6) among 18-24 year-olds, and 3.3/100 pyar (95% CI 1.3,4.2) among 25-39 year-olds. Based on prevalence increases by YSSS, HIV incidence was 5.3/100 pyar (95% CI 4.3,8.5) between 1-5 years since first selling sex, and 2.1/100 pyar (95% CI -1.3, 7.2) between 6-15 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis is consistent with very high HIV incidence among FSW in Zimbabwe, especially among those who are young and recently started selling sex. There is a critical need to engage young entrants into sex work in interventions that reduce their HIV risk.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Estimation of HIV incidence from analysis of HIV prevalence patterns by age and years since starting sex work among female sex workers in Zimbabwe |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1097/QAD.0000000000003198 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000003198 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health > Infection and Population Health UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10144207 |
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