Walls, Michael; Stevens, Mark; Sullivan, Kate; Fradgley, Sarah; Howell, Dominic; (2021) Limited International Election Observation Mission: Somaliland House of Representatives and Local Council Elections, 31 May 2021. The Bartlett Development Planning Unit (DPU), UCL: London, UK.

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Abstract

The combined House of Representatives and local council elections held on 31 May 2021 were peaceful and accepted as credible by stakeholders. These elec- tions demonstrated progress along Somaliland’s democratic path, despite being held under challenging circumstances caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and infrastructure limitations. A much-improved voter register was used compared to the previous parliamentary and council elections. The outcome of these elections, in which the two opposition parties gained seats at the expense of the governing party at both national and local levels were accepted with political maturity by the parties and other stakeholders. However, these elections also highlighted numerous important areas for legislative reforms and enhanced technical measures. These include two profound changes. First, reform should be considered of the restrictive political system in which only three political parties are permitted to contest elec- tions. Second, uniquely in Africa, not a single woman was elected to Parliament, which constitutes a serious democratic deficit. This necessitates Somalilander-led legislative measures to ensure female political representation, as efforts so far, including voluntary measures taken by political parties, civil society and interna- tional donors, have not produced the breakthrough many in Somaliland hoped for. Additionally, there should be a political re-commitment to the pre-existing constitu- tional electoral timetable so that future elections are held on time. Technical meas- ures which could help to improve the electoral process include: streamlining voter registration, significantly enhancing voter education, encouraging secrecy of voting, better training of polling staff, providing clear counting instructions, and enhancing technical measures for the tabulation of the votes. The overall findings of the LIEOM are that the voter registration process, although much improved since the previous local and parliamentary elections, is burden- some on the National Electoral Commission (NEC) and, more importantly, com- plicated for the potential voters themselves. In the absence of accurate data or a census, it is not possible to say with precision what proportion of the possible elec- torate is registered to vote. Nevertheless, the limited opportunities to register and collect voter cards diminish the participation of a significant proportion of eligible citizens. Positively, biometric data used in voter registration appears to have had a beneficial effect in eliminating multiple registration of voters. While these elections represent democratic progress, they were held 11 years beyond the originally envisaged expiration of the parliamentary term. The council elections were also held three and half years later than due. While there were some technical reasons for some of these delays, ultimately, they were the result of deci- sions taken by politicians to extend their terms of office. This undermines both the legitimacy of the previous Parliament and the rule of law in Somaliland. The Constitution explicitly limits the national electoral system to only three parties, which is a clear breach of democratic principles. While the supposed need for this as a tool for nation-building was put to the LIEOM, serious consideration should be given as to its effectiveness in reducing the political importance of clan-based politics, building national political parties or indeed in representing the will of the people. The outcome of this system is to constrain opportunities for candidates to contest and voters to choose. This results in a managed political process in which the choice of voters appears in many cases influenced by clan fidelity rather than the programmes of political parties. The legal environment has been improved with a consolidated electoral law, includ- ing some limited provisions on the reporting of campaign expenditure, though this still permits many issues to be decided at the discretion of NEC and/or the political parties. This led in some cases to late, inconsistent, or opaque decision-making, including restrictive measures on campaigning which may have had the effect of disadvantaging less established candidates, particularly women and young people. Female candidates were not given equal opportunities to contest during candidate nominations. Two of the parties even reneged on their voluntary commitment to nominate just 7% female parliamentary candidates. Consequently, Somaliland’s parliament and councils lack a diversity of voices which is to the detriment of all. The LIEOM strongly recommends the need for temporary special measures to bring about greater equality in elected positions. NEC faced considerable challenges in mounting these elections during the Cov- id-19 pandemic, which resulted in additional logistical hurdles. NEC by and large navigated these well, with (in the limited number of polling stations observed) the necessary materials provided. However, attempts by NEC to facilitate voters to cast their own ballots through an effective voter education programme were too late and of insufficient quality. The majority of voters observed requested the assistance of polling station chairpersons to vote. Although this was accepted by voters and political parties, this is not optimal because it eliminates the secrecy of the vote. Many voters were forced to wait for a long time to cast their ballots, which could have been alleviated by better information and queue management by local officials. The voting itself was calm and orderly. Counting procedures were not sufficiently described in NEC instructions to polling staff; nevertheless, the political parties and the polling staff had confidence in the integrity of the counting. Tabula- tion preparations and procedures should be revisited, particularly when holding two polls on a single day. NEC should communicate more clearly with stakeholders. Civil society has an important role to play in monitoring the electoral preparations, and the campaign, election and tabulation processes. However, NEC should be more open to scrutiny in this respect, allowing and encouraging diversity of national observers. With regard to final results, the party of the president did not win a majority of seats; an outcome that was accepted by the government. The milestone in which a member of a ‘minority’ clan succeeded in winning a seat in the House of Rep- resentatives was also significant, although the fact that no woman won a parlia- mentary seat and a reduced number both contested and won local council seats demonstrates the extent of the gender deficit.

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