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Surrogate probabilistic seismic demand modelling of inelastic single-degree-of-freedom systems for efficient earthquake risk applications

Gentile, R; Galasso, C; (2021) Surrogate probabilistic seismic demand modelling of inelastic single-degree-of-freedom systems for efficient earthquake risk applications. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics 10.1002/eqe.3576. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

This paper proposes surrogate models (or metamodels) mapping the parameters controlling the dynamic behaviour of inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDoF) systems (i.e., force-displacement capacity curve, hysteretic behaviour) and the parameters of their probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM, i.e., conditional distribution of an engineering demand parameter [EDP] given a ground-motion intensity measure [IM]). These metamodels allow the rapid derivation of fragility curves of SDoF representation of structures. Gaussian Process (GP) regression is selected as the metamodelling approach because of their flexibility in implementation, the resulting accuracy and computational efficiency. The metamodel training dataset includes 10,000 SDoF systems analysed via cloud-based non-linear time-history analysis (NLTHA) using recorded ground motions. The proposed GP regressions are tested in predicting the PSDM of both the SDoF database (through ten-fold cross validation) and eight realistic reinforced concrete (RC) frames, benchmarking the results against NLTHA. An application is conducted to propagate such modelling uncertainty to both fragility and vulnerability/loss estimations. Error levels are deemed satisfactory for practical applications, especially considering the low required modelling effort and analysis time. Regarding single-building applications enabled by the proposed metamodel, this paper presents a first attempt at a direct loss-based design procedure, which allows setting a target loss level for the designed structure (shown for a realistic RC frame). An earthquake risk model involving dynamic exposure and vulnerability modules is illustrated as an example of building portfolio applications. Specifically, the proposed application considers a retrofit-based seismic risk-reduction policy for a synthetic building portfolio, for which it is possible estimating the loss evolution over time.

Type: Article
Title: Surrogate probabilistic seismic demand modelling of inelastic single-degree-of-freedom systems for efficient earthquake risk applications
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1002/eqe.3576
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.3576
Language: English
Additional information: © 2021 The Authors. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Keywords: Direct loss-based design, dynamic exposure risk modelling, earthquake risk modelling, gaussian process regression, statistical modelling
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10139575
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