Redding, DW;
Gibb, R;
Dan-Nwafor, CC;
Ilori, EA;
Usman, YR;
Saliu, OH;
Michael, AO;
... Ihekweazu, C; + view all
(2021)
Geographical drivers and predictable climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria.
Nature Communications
, 12
, Article 5759. 10.1038/s41467-021-25910-y.
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Abstract
Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host (Mastomys natalensis) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease’s true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Geographical drivers and predictable climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-021-25910-y |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25910-y |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences > Genetics, Evolution and Environment |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10134134 |
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