Soto, Hugo; (2021) Testing the security hypothesis as explanation for Chilean burglary trends. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (Univeristy College London).

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Abstract

The aim of this thesis is to test the security hypothesis in the context of a developing country like Chile. This country has experienced a notable reduction in victimization rates since 2005, and no research has been made on the nature and extension of that phenomenon. The security hypothesis has been proposed to explain the Crime Drop in western industrialized countries, but little is known about its applicability in developing countries that have also experienced falls in victimization rates. This thesis contributes to filling that gap by focusing on the validity of the security hypothesis for explaining burglary trends in Chile. Analyses of secondary data are conducted using the Chilean national crime survey (ENUSC) data to test whether there actually was a drop in burglary rates and to test whether the availability of security devices affected victimization rates and trends during the studied period. Results suggest that the Crime Opportunity theories are a useful theoretical framework for modelling crime in a developing country like Chile, and that the Security hypothesis is a reasonable hypothesis to explain the downward trend observed in Chilean burglary rates.

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