Bianchi, E;
Malki-Epshtein, L;
(2021)
Evaluating the risk to Bangladeshi coastal infrastructure from tropical cyclones under climate change.
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
, 57
, Article 102147. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102147.
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Abstract
In many countries, infrastructure plays a crucial role reducing losses during a cyclone. Bangladesh is already extremely vulnerable to tropical cyclones, and its infrastructure is frequently damaged by such events. However, climate change is expected to make the infrastructure itself, more vulnerable to cyclonic events in the future. This paper assesses the risk to coastal infrastructure in Bangladesh under climate change, from a multi-hazard perspective. A novel risk assessment matrix is proposed, examining the likely future risk to the country's key infrastructure elements from six prioritised hazards. The hazards stem from changes to baseline climate, and from predictions of stronger cyclones as a result of climate change. We show that Bangladeshi infrastructure is extremely at risk, suggesting rapid action and mitigation measures are needed. Climate change will increase the vulnerability of infrastructure on its own, but higher storm surges related to intensified cyclones pose the greatest risk, with catastrophic impacts on all types of infrastructure. A number of recommendations to improve the infrastructure are made. Due to the severity of the risks, alternative measures to protect Bangladesh and its population should be considered. These may be natural defences, efficient evacuation procedures, integration of communities to the design and construction process, or relocation of populations. These measures may be more sustainable in the long term in a place with geophysical, geographical, social and financial contexts such as those found in Bangladesh.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Evaluating the risk to Bangladeshi coastal infrastructure from tropical cyclones under climate change |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102147 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Risk assessment, Vulnerability, Extreme weather, Storm surges, Multi-hazards |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10130205 |
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