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Lockean Beliefs, Dutch Books, and Scoring Systems

Rothschild, D; (2021) Lockean Beliefs, Dutch Books, and Scoring Systems. Erkenntnis: an international journal of analytic philosophy 10.1007/s10670-021-00438-1. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

On the Lockean thesis one ought to believe a proposition if and only if one assigns it a credence at or above a threshold (Foley in Am Philos Q 29(2):111–124, 1992). The Lockean thesis, thus, provides a way of characterizing sets of all-or-nothing beliefs. Here we give two independent characterizations of the sets of beliefs satisfying the Lockean thesis. One is in terms of betting dispositions associated with full beliefs and one is in terms of an accuracy scoring system for full beliefs. These characterizations are parallel to, but not merely derivative from, the more familiar Dutch Book (de Finetti in Theory of probability, vol 1, Wiley, London, 1974) and accuracy (Joyce in Philos Sci 65(4):575–603, 1998) arguments for probabilism.

Type: Article
Title: Lockean Beliefs, Dutch Books, and Scoring Systems
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1007/s10670-021-00438-1
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10670-021-00438-1
Language: English
Additional information: This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of Arts and Humanities
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of Arts and Humanities > Dept of Philosophy
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10129970
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