The shape and pace of change in the electricity transition: sectoral dynamics and indicators of progress

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The shape and pace of change in the electricity transition: sectoral dynamics and indicators of progress

Grubb, M; Drummond, P; Hughes, N; (2020) The shape and pace of change in the electricity transition: sectoral dynamics and indicators of progress. UCL: London, UK. Green open access

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Abstract

Change is not linear. Time and again, industries, policymakers, and commentators in markets, technologies, and societies. This report outlines the potential dynamics of the transition to net-zero emissions; explains the general principles, characteristics, and common drivers of growth of emerging technologies; and explores progress against metrics of transition in electricity generation. Given that rapid technological progress and diffusion of zero-carbon technologies are critical to reduce emissions at the pace and scale required, this report looks at the deployment levels and rates of change needed to achieve global climate goals, assuming the widely observed “S-curve” and pace of change. The electricity sector has to lead the global transition required to avoid dangerous climate change. Meeting the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, as set out in the Paris Agreement, requires global power sector 1 Namely: “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.” (UN, 2015). CO2 emissions to reach net zero before 2050, with most studies showing that solar and wind are likely to become dominant sources of zero-carbon power. Many assessments of deployment levels to date are very pessimistic, extrapolating linear growth and looking at the absolute contribution from renewable energy sources, which, though growing, is still limited. This report probes deeper and anchors its analysis in the more commonly observed nonlinear dynamics of technological transition, comparing the trends since 2010 with the pace of transition required. The results may surprise, and bring clarity to where progress is being made and where and how it needs to be pushed faster. A rapid transition is underway and appears now unstoppable, though its pace and depth will depend on policy. But inconsistency with dynamic indicators for fossil fuel-based generation points to a high risk of stranded fossil fuel generation assets irrespective of future policy decisions.

Type:	Report
Title:	The shape and pace of change in the electricity transition: sectoral dynamics and indicators of progress
Open access status:	An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version:	https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content...
Language:	English
Additional information:	This version is the version of record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions.
UCL classification:	UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI:	https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10118577