Ghariani, Jonathan; (2020) Paths to peace: a Comparative analysis of the diplomatic history of the bilateral and multilateral middle east peace negotiations from 2000 to 2017. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

The Arab-Israeli peace process has been the subject of much debate in the field of international politics. Most peace efforts in the Middle East have taken the form of bilateral negotiations and have led to breakthroughs on a number of issues, most notably the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Egypt as a result of the Camp David Accord. However, while the bilateral approach has mainly been successful in solving territorial conflicts between sovereign states, it has proven much less successful in dealing with more intractable issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, such as the status of Jerusalem, the refugee issue and questions relating to national identity. The role of third-party mediators, mainly the United States, is also heavily debated.Historically, attempts to pursue the multilateral tract have been foiled by the refusal of the Arab states to recognize Israel, as well as Israel’s fear that it would be outnumbered in any multilateral negotiations and so pressured by Arabs states into making concessions on sensitive issues, such as the fate of the Palestinian refugees. The Madrid peace process was the first round of multilateral talks between Israel and the wider Arab world, excluding Syria and Lebanon. Despite initial success, these talks ended in failure and were terminated in January 2000. In March 2002 the Arab League adopted the Arab Peace Initiative (API), which explicitly recognized Israel for the first time. However, some major points of contention remain between Israel and the Arab states, mainly on the issue of refugees, as the API insists on a settlement based on United Nations General Assembly Resolution 194. Nowadays, there is a convergence of interests between Israel and moderate Arab states – such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states – related to the rise of Iranian influence in the Middle East. This convergence could pave the way for Arab regional involvement in the peace process.This thesis will address the diplomatic history of the final status negotiations that took place between Israel and the Palestinian Authority from the second Camp David summit of July 2000 to the Kerry sponsored negotiations of 2013-2014. It will assess the various factors that led to the failure of these negotiations. Additionally, this thesis will address the regional dimension of the peace process, focusing on the API and the current regional context of rapprochement between Israel and most of the Gulf states. In particular, the escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran has led to an unprecedented convergence of interest Escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran has led to an alignment of interests between Israel and Riyadh. This new regional landscape could pave the way to a normalization of relations between Israel and moderate Arab states provided some progress is achieved in the Israeli Palestinian peace process.

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