Curtis, CJ; Whyatt, JD; Metcalfe, SE; Allott, TEH; Harriman, R; (1998) Assessing the impact of international emissions reduction scenarios to combat the acidification of freshwaters in Great Britain with the First-order Acidity Balance (FAB) model and the Hull Acid Rain Model (HARM). (ECRC Research Paper 17 , pp. pp. 1-22 ). UCL Environmental Change Research Centre: London, UK.

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Abstract

of acid deposition through emissions controls. In Great Britain and Scandinavia, critical loads for freshwater ecosystems are calculated with the First-order Acidity Balance (F AB) model, which provides a catchment based estimate of deposition reduction requirements of both sulphur and nitrogen species in order to protect a selected aquatic target organism. The F AB model is here applied to a national freshwaters database for Great Britain using three deposition scenarios generated with the Hull Acid Rain Model (HARM). Critical load exceedance and changes in two important chemical indicators (nitrate and acid neutralizing capacity) are assessed for 1990 baseline deposition levels, planned emissions reductions under existing international commitments (REF scenario), and a potential stringent deposition reduction scenario under a multi-pollutant, multi-effect strategy (EI O scenario). Model outputs indicate that the proportion of sampled sites exceeding their critical load will be reduced by sixty-four and seventy-eight percent respectively under the two future deposition scenarios. Planned reductions in emissions under the REF scenario will protect most Scottish freshwaters, but substantial areas of the English and Welsh uplands will remain exceeded. Most of the required reductions in acid deposition for both Scotland and Wales would be met by the more stringent EI O scenario. In the most sensitive areas of northern England, even greater reductions in both S and N emissions than those described under the EI O scenario are required. While S remains the most important source of acid deposition even after future reductions, freshwaters in sensitive areas cannot be protected by abatement of S emissions alone. There is a clear need for a strategy to reduce N deposition if British freshwaters in sensitive areas are to be protected.

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