Sullivan, MJP;
Lewis, SL;
Affum-Baffoe, K;
Castilho, C;
Costa, F;
Sanchez, AC;
Ewango, CEN;
... Phillips, OL; + view all
(2020)
Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests.
Science
, 368
(6493)
pp. 869-874.
10.1126/science.aaw7578.
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Abstract
The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1126/science.aaw7578 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Geography |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10103298 |
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