Kim, HC;
Lee, JS;
Lee, EY;
Ha, Y-J;
Chae, EJ;
Han, M;
Cross, G;
... Song, JW; + view all
(2020)
Risk prediction model in rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease.
Respirology
, 25
(12)
pp. 1257-1264.
10.1111/resp.13848.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: RA-ILD has a variable clinical course, and its prognosis is difficult to predict. Moreover, risk prediction models for prognosis remain undefined. METHODS: The prediction model was developed using retrospective data from 153 patients with RA-ILD and validated in an independent RA-ILD cohort (n = 149). Candidate variables for the prediction models were screened using a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. C-statistics were calculated to assess and compare the predictive ability of each model. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, the median follow-up period was 54 months, and 38.6% of the subjects exhibited a UIP pattern on HRCT imaging. In multivariate Cox analysis, old age (≥60 years, HR: 2.063), high fibrosis score (≥20% of the total lung extent, HR: 4.585), a UIP pattern (HR: 1.899) and emphysema (HR: 2.596) on HRCT were significantly poor prognostic factors and included in the final model. The prediction model demonstrated good performance in the prediction of 5-year mortality (C-index: 0.780, P < 0.001); furthermore, patients at risk were divided into three groups with 1-year mortality rates of 0%, 5.1% and 24.1%, respectively. Predicted and observed mortalities at 1, 2 and 3 years were similar in the derivation cohort, and the prediction model was also effective in predicting prognosis of the validation cohort (C-index: 0.638, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that a risk prediction model based on HRCT variables could be useful for patients with RA-ILD.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Risk prediction model in rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease |
| Location: | Australia |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1111/resp.13848 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1111/resp.13848 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | diagnostic, imaging, interstitial lung disease, prognosis, rheumatoid arthritis |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine > Respiratory Medicine |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10099646 |
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