Cremen, G;
Galasso, C;
(2020)
Earthquake early warning: Recent advances and perspectives.
Earth-Science Reviews
, 205
, Article 103184. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103184.
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Abstract
Earthquake early warning (EEW) is a relatively new strategy for reducing disaster risk and increasing resilience to seismic hazard in urban settings. EEW systems provide real-time information about ongoing earthquakes, enabling individuals, communities, governments, businesses and others located at distance to take timely action to reduce the probability of harm or loss before the earthquake-induced ground shaking reaches them. Examples of potential losses mitigated by EEW systems include injuries and infrastructure downtime. These systems are currently operating in nine countries, and are being/have been tested for implementation in 13 more. This paper reviews state-of-the-art approaches to EEW around the world. We specifically focus on the various algorithms that have been developed for the rapid calculation of seismic-source parameters, ground shaking, and potential consequences in the wake of an event. We also discuss limitations of the existing applied methodologies, with a particular emphasis on the lack of engineering-related (i.e., risk and resilience) metrics currently used to support decision-making related to the triggering of alerts by various end users. Finally, we provide a number of suggestions for future end-user-orientated advances in the field of EEW. For example, we propose that next-generation EEW systems should incorporate engineering-based, application-specific models/tools for more effective risk communication. They should operate within robust probabilistic frameworks that explicitly quantify uncertainties at each stage of the analysis, for more informed stakeholder decision-making. These types of advancements in EEW systems would represent an important paradigm shift in current approaches to issuing early warnings for natural hazards.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Earthquake early warning: Recent advances and perspectives |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103184 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103184 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Earthquake early warning, Risk communication, Engineering-related risk prediction, Decision-making under uncertainty, Resilience promotion |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10099152 |
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