Kulinskaya, E;
Gitsels, LA;
Bakbergenuly, I;
Wright, NR;
(2020)
Calculation of changes in life expectancy based on proportional hazards model of an intervention.
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics
, 93
pp. 27-35.
10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.04.006.
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Abstract
Mortality projections are of great interest to the pension and insurance industry and with an ageing population, the projections need to cover a longer period. A significant question is how to incorporate in mortality projections the longevity risk due to medical advances and uptake of health interventions. We show how hazard ratios obtained from medical studies in combination with the baseline hazards described by Gompertz or Weibull survival distributions, can be translated into changes in individual and population period life expectancy. The impact of medical advances and health interventions can differ among groups of people, such as by sex, age, and deprivation. Changes in life expectancy depend on the composition of the population and these attributes. These calculations are illustrated by a case study on statins, a drug that can significantly improve life expectancy. An R program implementing our methodology is provided in the Appendix.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Calculation of changes in life expectancy based on proportional hazards model of an intervention |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.04.006 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.04.006 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) |
| Keywords: | Hazard function, Health data, Mortality, Population health, Gompertz distribution, Weibull distribution |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health > Population, Policy and Practice Dept |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10096631 |
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