Jackson, S;
Beard, E;
Kujawski, B;
Sunyer, E;
Michie, S;
Shahab, L;
West, R;
(2019)
Comparison of Trends in Self-reported Cigarette Consumption
and Sales in England, 2011 to 2018.
JAMA Network Open
, 2
(8)
, Article e1910161. 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.10161.
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Abstract
Importance: Population cigarette consumption is declining in many countries. Accurate estimates of long- and short-term changes are vital for policy evaluation and planning. Survey data and sales data that are used to make these estimates each have important potential biases so that triangulation using different methods is required for robust estimation. // Objective: To compare monthly estimates of cigarette consumption in England from a nationally representative survey and recorded cigarette sales and to triangulate an accurate estimate of changes in cigarette consumption since 2011. // Design: Time series analyses of trends in population cigarette consumption, based on survey data and recorded cigarette sales. // Setting: England. // Main outcome measures: Monthly cigarette retail sales data from August 2011 through February 2018 were obtained from a data agency. Monthly self-reports of cigarette consumption were collected over the same period using the Smoking Toolkit Study, which surveyed representative samples of 1,700 people aged ≥16 years each month in England (total n=136,677; age range 16-99, mean [SD] age 46.71 [18.80]; 51.1% female), and scaled up to the ≥16 population in England. // Results: Over the study period, monthly cigarette consumption in England averaged 2.85 (95% CI 2.78-2.93) billion based on survey data compared with 3.08 (95% CI 3.03-3.13) billion estimated from sales data. Over the whole period, cigarette consumption declined by 24.4% based on survey data and 24.1% based on sales data. This equated to 118.4 and 117.4 million fewer cigarette sticks consumed per month based on survey data and sales data, respectively. After adjusting for underlying trends, month-by-month changes in cigarette consumption were closely aligned: a 1% change in survey-estimated cigarette consumption was associated with a 0.98% (95% CI 0.53 to 1.44) change in sale estimates. // Conclusions and relevance: Survey data and sales data are closely aligned in showing that overall cigarette sales in England have declined by almost a quarter since 2011, amounting to >1 billion fewer cigarettes smoked each year. The alignment between the two methods provides increased confidence in the accuracy of parameters provided by the Smoking Toolkit Study and sales data. It indicates that estimated changes in cigarette consumption are robust, and provide a meaningful basis for policy evaluation and planning.
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