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Multitask Modeling with Confidence Using Matrix Factorization and Conformal Prediction

Svensson, F; Norinder, U; (2019) Multitask Modeling with Confidence Using Matrix Factorization and Conformal Prediction. Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling , 59 (4) pp. 1598-1604. 10.1021/acs.jcim.9b00027. Green open access

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Abstract

Multi-task prediction of bioactivities is often faced with challenges relating to the sparsity of data and imbalance between different labels. We propose class conditional (Mondrian) conformal predictors using underlying Macau models as a novel approach for large scale bioactivity prediction. This approach handles both high degrees of missing data and label imbalances while still producing high quality predictive models. When applied to ten assay endpoints from PubChem, the models generated valid models with an efficiency of 74.0 - 80.1 % at the 80 % confidence level with similar performance both for the minority and majority class. Also when deleting progressively larger portions of the available data (0 - 80 %) the performance of the models remained robust with only minor deterioration (reduction in efficiency between 5-10 %). Compared to using Macau without conformal prediction the method presented here significantly improves the performance on imbalanced datasets.

Type: Article
Title: Multitask Modeling with Confidence Using Matrix Factorization and Conformal Prediction
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1021/acs.jcim.9b00027
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jcim.9b00027
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Redox reactions, Quality management, Assays, Computational modeling, Bioactivity
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology > Department of Neuromuscular Diseases
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10071184
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