Adeoye, O;
Spataru, C;
(2019)
Modelling and forecasting hourly electricity demand in West African countries.
Applied Energy
, 242
pp. 311-333.
10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.057.
Preview |
Text
Adeoye_Modelling and forecasting hourly electricity demand in West African countries_AAM.pdf - Accepted Version Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
The Economic Community of West African States aims to achieve 100% electrification rates by 2030 in all member countries. To achieve this ambitious target, electricity generation capacities need to be increased significantly. Forecasting hourly electricity demand is imperative for capacity planners in optimizing investment options and ensuring reliable electricity supply. However, modelling hourly electricity demand in developing countries can be a challenge due to paucity of historical demand data and methodological frameworks that adequately capture technology transitions and urban-rural communities. In this study, we address this gap by developing an hourly electricity demand model for 14 West African countries in the year 2016 and 2030. The model takes into account electrification rates, available household appliances, occupancy patterns of household members, type of day, available daylight hours and hourly weather conditions. Annual electricity demand in non-residential sectors and electricity access rates in urban and rural households are forecasted using multiple regression analysis. We validated the developed model using actual 2016 monthly and annual electricity demand data. The results show the seasonal variations of electricity demand, with hourly electricity demand in dry seasons relatively higher than demand in wet seasons. The results also indicate that in 2030, electricity demand in the West African region is estimated to be five times its 2016 level. The methodology presented in this study can be applicable for modelling hourly electricity demand in developing countries that have scarce historical hourly demand data, a significant electricity supply-demand gap, and varying electricity access rates in urban and rural areas.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Modelling and forecasting hourly electricity demand in West African countries |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.057 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.057 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Electricity demand modelling, West Africa, Developing countries, Residential demand, Demand forecasting, Hourly electricity demand |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10069826 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
