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Seasonal and Regional Manifestation of Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Onarheim, IH; Eldevik, T; Smedsrud, LH; Stroeve, JC; (2018) Seasonal and Regional Manifestation of Arctic Sea Ice Loss. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , 31 (12) pp. 4917-4932. 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0427.1. Green open access

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Abstract

The Arctic Ocean is currently on a fast track toward seasonally ice-free conditions. Although most attention has been on the accelerating summer sea ice decline, large changes are also occurring in winter. This study assesses past, present, and possible future change in regional Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent throughout the year by examining sea ice concentration based on observations back to 1950, including the satellite record since 1979. At present, summer sea ice variability and change dominate in the perennial ice-covered Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas, with the East Siberian Sea explaining the largest fraction of September ice loss (22%). Winter variability and change occur in the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south: the Barents Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, Greenland Sea, and Baffin Bay, with the Barents Sea carrying the largest fraction of loss in March (27%). The distinct regions of summer and winter sea ice variability and loss have generally been consistent since 1950, but appear at present to be in transformation as a result of the rapid ice loss in all seasons. As regions become seasonally ice free, future ice loss will be dominated by winter. The Kara Sea appears as the first currently perennial ice-covered sea to become ice free in September. Remaining on currently observed trends, the Arctic shelf seas are estimated to become seasonally ice free in the 2020s, and the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south to become ice free year-round from the 2050s.

Type: Article
Title: Seasonal and Regional Manifestation of Arctic Sea Ice Loss
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0427.1
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0427.1
Language: English
Additional information: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Keywords: Arctic; Sea ice; Climate change
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10059612
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