Green, Francis; Henseke, Golo; (2017) Graduates and 'graduate jobs' in Europe: a picture of growth and diversification. (CGHE Working Paper 25). Centre for Global Higher Education: London, UK.

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Abstract

We address the question of how the supply and demand for graduates is changing in western, northern and southern Europe in the 21st century. We find that the proportion of the population with tertiary qualifications is increasing everywhere. But only in the Anglo and Nordic countries has the share of high-skill employment grown fast. The prevalence of graduate underemployment varies, partially reflecting the aggregate imbalance between the supply of graduates and the prevalence of graduate jobs. Over time the rate of graduate underemployment has increased in southern Europe and in Ireland, but not everywhere. In real terms graduate earnings have been declining in some of the southern countries, while they continued to rise in Nordic countries. In most countries, the average graduate earnings premium, relative to workers with upper secondary education, has remained largely stationary, exceptions being Portugal and Greece where it declined markedly. There was a rising earnings penalty for underemployment of graduates in Austria, Ireland and Italy, but none elsewhere. Though we can be confident the supply of graduates will continue to rise in the coming decades, the future for graduate jobs is especially uncertain at this juncture.

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