Viner, R;
Ward, JL;
Wolfe, I;
(2018)
Countdown for UK Child Survival 2017: mortality progress and targets.
Archives of Disease in Childhood
, 103
(5)
pp. 474-479.
10.1136/archdischild-2017-314184.
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Abstract
Background: The Countdown for UK Child Survival tracks recent UK child mortality trends and makes recommendations for improvement. / Methods: We used data from the WHO World Mortality Database to calculate mortality from 1970 to 2014 for 0–19 year olds in the UK and a comparable group of wealthy countries (the EU15+). We used Poisson regression models to assess the significance of apparent differences. We extrapolated model coefficients to estimate future disparites between the UK and the EU15+ to 2030. We proposed goals and intermediate indicators to track UK mortality in keeping with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. / Results: UK infant mortality continues to track in the worst decile of EU15+ mortality with 1–4 year mortality in the worst quartile. Annual reductions in total UK mortality have been significantly lower than the EU15+ since 1990 for infant, postneonatal and 1–4 year mortality. If current trends persist, by 2030 UK infant mortality and 1–4 year mortality could be respectively 180% and 145% of EU15+ median mortality. UK non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality among 1–4 years and 15–19 years persists in the worst quartile. UK injury mortality continues in the best quartile. A framework of goals and indicators for UK child survival and health is presented. / Discussion: UK mortality among under 10 years of age continues to diverge from the EU15+ median, and UK NCD mortality remains persistently poor. We propose a set of goals to improve UK childhood survival by 2030 and an annual Countdown mechanism to monitor progress towards these targets.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Countdown for UK Child Survival 2017: mortality progress and targets |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1136/archdischild-2017-314184 |
| Publisher version: | http://doi.org/10.1136/archdischild-2017-314184 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health > Population, Policy and Practice Dept |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10041377 |
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